Turning Data into Action: How Global Collaboration Revealed Africa’s Carbon Shift

Africa’s forests have long been vital in absorbing carbon dioxide and slowing climate change. But new research led by the National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO) shows a dramatic change: since 2010, these forests have shifted from being a carbon sink to a carbon source.

NCEO scientists are global leaders in measuring carbon and biomass using satellites and ground based instruments. The study is a collaboration of expertise from NCEO scientists at the University of Leicester, University of Edinburgh and University of Sheffield.

What we found

Using cutting-edge satellite data, machine learning, and thousands of field measurements, scientists mapped changes in aboveground biomass across Africa at unprecedented detail. The results are clear:

• 2007–2010: Africa gained carbon, acting as a strong sink.
• 2010–2017: Losses accelerated, driven by deforestation in tropical moist broadleaf forests, especially in the Congo Basin, Madagascar, and West Africa.

While savanna regions saw some gains, they were not enough to offset forest losses. This shift means global climate targets will be harder to achieve without urgent action.

This is a critical wake-up call for global climate policy. If Africa’s forests are no longer absorbing carbon, it means other regions and the world as a whole will need to cut greenhouse gas emissions even more deeply to stay within the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement and avoid catastrophic climate change. Climate finance for the Tropical Forests Forever Facility must be scaled up quickly to put an end to global deforestation for good.”

– Professor Heiko Balzter, senior author and NCEO scientist at the University of Leicester.

WHY COLLABORATION MATTERS

This breakthrough was only possible through international partnerships. The study brought together experts from universities and research centres across the UK, Europe, and Africa, supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the European Space Agency (ESA). By combining NASA’s GEDI LiDAR, Japan’s ALOS radar data, and local field plots, the team created the most detailed biomass maps ever produced for Africa.

This research shows what’s possible when science, technology, and international cooperation come together. Protecting Africa’s forests is not just a regional issue—it’s a global responsibility.”

-Dr Nezha Acil NCEO author at the University of Leicester

WHAT’S NEXT?

Collaboration doesn’t stop here. Initiatives like AFR100 (restoring 100 million hectares by 2030) and the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, announced at COP30, need global support. Stronger forest governance, enforcement against illegal logging, and large-scale restoration are essential.

Achieving standards in forest carbon measurements is also critical to support industry and governments; initiatives such as GEO-TREES and other networks are providing reference data

Features on the research paper can be found in the Guardian and New Scientist.

Supporting science evidence for the results can be found in the Global Carbon Budget 2025 which was launched earlier this month at COP30 and Global Forest Watch who provide a longer time series of tree cover loss from remote sensing in the Democratic Republic of Congo.