High impact weather

The goal of this part of the work is to improve our understanding of the physical and dynamic processes governing storms and floods and to develop capability to forecast these phenomena. Short term priorities include:

• Evaluation of TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) data
• Development of software to run an NWP convection-resolving model in ensemble mode
• Investigation of passive microwave snow retrievals
• Development of techniques to apply SAR data to urban floods
• Development of a morphodynamic data assimilation system.

Results from a morphodynamic model of Morecambe Bay, which predicts changing bathymetry (topography) caused by tide induced sediment transport. These results show that using data assimilation can improve model performance. Being able to predict future bathymetry is useful for coastal flood risk management purposes.
Observed change in bathymetry over a 3-year period. Warm colours show accretion; cool colours show erosion.	The corresponding modelled change in bathymetry without data assimilation.	The corresponding modelled change in bathymetry with data assimilation. The data used for assimilation were obtained from satellite SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) images of the bay.